КАСКАДНО-ЦИКЛИЧЕСКАЯ МОДЕЛЬ ЦЕНООБРАЗОВАНИЯ И УПРАВЛЕНИЯ ФИНАНСОВЫМ РИСКОМ ОБРАЗОВАТЕЛЬНЫХ ПРОГРАММ ВЫСШЕГО УЧЕБНОГО ЗАВЕДЕНИЯ
Keywords:
higher education pricing; university financial planning; financial risk management; Value-at-Risk; margin rate optimization; golden-section method; financial sustainability index; enrollment forecastingAbstract
This paper substantiates an integrated cascade-cyclic model (CCM) for pricing and financial planning of university programs, combining deterministic revenue forecasting, stochastic optimization of the margin rate, and dynamic financial-risk management. The model is a closed four-level cycle of 17 relations: forecasting (I); margin optimization via the golden-section method (II); risk diagnostics and dropout endogenization (III); risk-mitigation tools and a sustainability index (IV). A numerical example shows margin optimization increases cycle profit by 13.7% without changing enrollment. A normalized sustainability index bounded within [0,1] removes sensitivity to the planned-revenue threshold.
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