OSHQOZON-ICHAK YO’LLARINING YUQORI QISMIDAN YARALI QON KETISHI BILAN BEMORLARDA 30 KUNLIK O’LIMNI BASHORAT QILISHNING YANGI TIZIMI
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prognoz tizimi, o‘lim xavfi, oshqozon-ichak qon ketishi, yangi ishlanma##article.abstract##
Dolzarblik. Oshqozon-ichak qon ketishlari (OIQK) yuqori uchrashish tezligi va yuqori o‘lim ko‘rsatkichiga ega bo‘lgan jiddiy tibbiy muammo bo‘lib qolmoqda. Zamonaviy tashxis va davolashdagi yutuqlarga qaramay, o‘lim holatlari ko‘rsatkichi pasaymayapti, shu sababli bugungi tibbiyotda dolzarb masala sifatida oqilona prognozlashtirish asosiy vazifalardan biri bo‘lib qolmoqda.
Tadqiqot maqsadi. Oshqozon-ichak yo‘lining yuqori qismlaridagi yarali OIQK bilan kasal bemorlarda 30 kunlik kasalxonadagi o‘lim xavfini baholash uchun yangi prognoz tizimini ishlab chiqish va uni validasiya qilish.
Materiallar va usullar. Ikki markazda o‘tkazilgan tadqiqotga asosan, retrospektiv derivasion bosqichi va ikki tomonlama ko‘r-ko‘rona usulida o‘tkazilgan prospektiv validasion bosqichi amalga oshirildi. Tahlillash logistik regressiya va faktorlarni klasterizasiya qilish asosida bajarilgan. Ishlab chiqilgan prognoz tizimi mavjud olti shkala bilan solishtirildi.
Natijalar. Yangi tizim yuqori AUROC natijasini (0.853) ko‘rsatdi. Yangi tizim 76.47% sezgirlik va 94.12% spesifiklikka ega bo‘lib, yuqori o‘lim xavfiga ega bemorlarni aniqroq identifikasiya qilish imkonini berdi.
Xulosa. Yangi prognoz tizimi yarali OIQKning oshqozon-ichak yo‘lining yuqori qismida uchraydigan bemorlarda 30 kunlik kasalxona o‘limi xavfini aniq bashorat qilishda yuqori samaradorlikka ega.
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